News

VIPOil Risk Premiums and rToken Dividend Arbitrage Strategies

1. This week we focus on cross-asset positioning under an energy shock and arbitrage opportunities in tokenized-stock cash dividends. We recommend assessing market direction separately from income sources. Higher oil can weigh on growth valuations, lift inflation expectations, and spark expectations of Fed rate hikes, putting pressure on equities and crypto. 2. rToken net cash dividends can be distributed separately, but buying spot, shorting a perpetual, and holding across the record date does not automatically create an arbitrage. First confirm ex-dividend eligibility, platform snapshots, after-tax amounts, and the corporate-action rules for the short leg. Then compare funding fees, spreads, and execution costs. A dividend arbitrage strategy can be applied to STRC. 3. Next week's Fed decision and major technology earnings are key. Lower policy uncertainty can help restore risk appetite, but a sustained rebound still needs confirmation from rates, cloud growth, capital expenditure, and free cash flow. Our base case is a monthly-timeframe rebound in risk assets and crypto as earnings season, the Fed meeting, and the midterm elections pass and uncertainty recedes. Assets in focus: BTC, ETH, SOL, WTI, ASML, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, CAT, and STRC

VIPAI Asset Sell-Off and Selective Rotation in Crypto

1. Technology stocks fell sharply as investor interest shifted toward energy and selected defensive assets. From October 10 to 16, the Nasdaq 100 declined 5.49% and the S&P 500 fell 1.95%, while the Dow gained 0.67% and WTI crude rose 10.41%. BTC, ETH, and SOL declined 1.27%, 2.65%, and 4.44%, respectively. This week's technology earnings will be an important test of whether revenue growth, margins, and cash flow can justify current valuations. Better-than-expected results could help stabilize markets in the near term. 2. Crypto continues to see pockets of strong activity, but a broad-based altcoin season has yet to materialize. CoinMarketCap's (CMC) Altcoin Season Index stood at 54 as of the October 18 UTC daily observation, below the altcoin-season threshold of 75, while BTC dominance rose to 60.08%. Our proxy leverage ratio fluctuated between 4.00 and 4.07 during the week, showing no sustained increase and suggesting limited appetite for additional leverage. Meanwhile, as major exchanges expand access to traditional financial assets, the recent sell-off in AI-related equities could attract short-term speculative capital away from crypto. Such capital rotation could make it more difficult for a new altcoin season to take hold. 3. Papertrade's loss-to-mine model has generated significant interest across the crypto community. The protocol combines high-leverage derivatives trading with zero slippage and a mechanism that rewards trading losses with PAPER tokens. Across the eight complete UTC days from October 10 to 17, cumulative reported revenue reached approximately $56.08 million, including $51.90 million distributed to token holders. With growing participation from key opinion leaders (KOLs), Papertrade has reportedly ranked among the top three platforms by profitability in the broader market recently. Assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, ARB, OP, SKHYNIX, SKHY, META, TSLA, LRCX, and SPCX. Key research priorities this week: Cash flow performance in technology earnings; the relative discount and holding costs of the two SK Hynix contracts; and U.S. initial jobless claims and PMI data. Weekly market data cover the period through October 16, while research information was verified through October 18. Observation periods are specified separately for each chart.

VIPEarnings Under Scrutiny Amid High Interest Rates and Platform Recovery

1. U.S. equities gained over the week, while crypto assets declined, reflecting a divergence in risk appetite. From October 3 to 9, the S&P 500 rose 1.15% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.24%, while BTC, ETH, and SOL fell 2.31%, 6.84%, and 7.99%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.27%, and although the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined 3.3 basis points, it remained elevated at 5.244%. High funding costs therefore continued to weigh on risk asset valuations. 2. Weak employment data have not eliminated inflation concerns, while AI and on-chain finance face growing scrutiny over commercial viability. September nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000, yet the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting still pointed to the possibility of further rate hikes before year-end. This week's CPI release and major bank earnings will provide important tests of growth and inflation pressures. Revenue recognition and reporting practices in AI, underlying asset rights in RWA, and operating costs for Layer 2 networks are also becoming increasingly important measures of commercial viability. 3. Bitget has completed its phased service restoration, while the Bitget Alliance Program continues to support clients' trading and capital management needs. We completed the planned restoration on October 2 and replenished the Protection Fund to more than $300 million on September 30. According to DefiLlama, assets tracked on the platform rebounded from approximately $5.647 billion on October 1 to $6.223 billion on October 11. This report also outlines VIP level protection, user rewards, and institutional fee incentives to help high-value clients plan their trading activities according to their account type. Assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, SUI, PUMP, gold, JPM, BAC, and ASML. Key areas of focus this week: The October 14 U.S. CPI release; bank net interest income and credit costs; AI cash flow generation; and post-recovery trends in assets held on Bitget, settlement efficiency, and trading conditions. Market data are current through October 9 or the latest local trading day. Official announcements and promotion terms were reviewed through October 12.