ETH chart pattern projects rally to $2.5K if key conditions are met: Data

Ether (ETH) opened the week with a drop below the psychological $2,000 level, placing the altcoin into a 20% loss for February. Still, onchain data shows long-term investors accumulating ETH and rising network usage. 

Now, analysts are examining how ETH’s technical outlook and the derivatives data align with its emerging demand to determine if a prolonged rally above $2,000 is possible.

Key takeaways:

• Over 2.5 million ETH flowed into accumulation addresses in February, lifting holdings to 26.7 million for 2026.

• Ethereum weekly transactions hit 17.3 million as the median fees fell to $0.008, a 3,000x drop from 2021 peaks.

• ETH open interest dropped to $11.2 billion, but leverage remains elevated, with liquidation clusters stacked near $1,909 and $2,200.

Ether accumulation grows despite price drop

Ether accumulation addresses added more than 2.5 million ETH in February, even as the price declined around 20%. Total holdings have risen to 26.7 million ETH, up from 22 million at the beginning of 2026.

MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe noted that ETH valued against silver is at its lowest level on record, arguing that such difficult market phases often present a long-term accumulation window.

The network demand is also improving alongside improving fundamentals. Over 30% of ETH’s circulating supply (37,228,911 ETH)  is currently staked, reducing the liquid supply. At the same time, weekly transaction count reached an all-time high of 17.3 million, while median fees fell to $0.008.

In comparison, head of research at Lisk, Leon Waidmann, noted that the weekly transactions were near 21 million, but the median fees surged above $25 during the 2021 peak. The current structure reflects a higher usage at significantly lower cost.

Related: Harvard endowment reduces stake in Bitcoin ETF, adds Ether exposure

ETH compresses below $2,000 as leveraged traders brace for a breakout

On the four-hour chart, Ether appears to be forming an Adam and Eve bottom, a bullish reversal setup that begins with a sharp, V-shaped low (the “Adam”) followed by a slower, rounded base (the “Eve”).

The structure reflects an initial aggressive sell-off that quickly finds buyers, then a period of gradual accumulation as the volatility contracts. 

A confirmed breakout above the $2,150 neckline validates the pattern and may open the door toward the $2,473–$2,634 region, based on the measured move projection from the base. The invalidation remains below recent higher lows, with $1,909 acting as a key short-term liquidity level. 

Open interest has declined to $11.2 billion from a $30 billion cycle peak in August 2025. However, the estimated leverage ratio remains elevated at 0.7, only slightly down from 0.77 in January. This suggests leverage is still concentrated in the system, increasing the possibility of a sharp move.

Hyblock data shows that 73% of the global accounts are currently long on ETH. Liquidation heatmaps show more than $2 billion in short positions clustered above $2,200, compared with roughly $1 billion in long liquidations stacked near $1,800, highlighting a heavier squeeze risk to the upside.

Although the nearest dense cluster sits at $1,909, where $563 million in longs are vulnerable, which may act as a potential short-term liquidity magnet before the expected uptrend. 

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