Was there a leak before Trump's post? Prediction markets show unusual bets on a US-Iran ceasefire before next week!

Source: Jinse Finance

On Monday morning local time, US President Trump posted on “Truth Social” stating that the US and Iran had “very good and productive talks” on resolving the Middle East war.

However, before Trump publicly released this news, several accounts had already placed large bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket, wagering that the war would end within the week. Ten newly created accounts invested thousands of dollars in Polymarket’s “US-Iran Ceasefire” market, betting that a ceasefire would be reached by March 31 or April 15; these accounts collectively wagered about $160,000, and if a ceasefire occurred by the end of the month, profits would exceed $1 million.

These accounts were identified last Sunday by X platform user Lirrato and amplified by the PolymarketHistory account. After Trump’s post on Monday, the realized gains of these ten accounts had already exceeded $300,000.

One account in particular, named “NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS,” attracted special attention. Registered in late February, its first two trades were betting $7,600 that the US would strike Iran before February 28, and $11,283 on a strike before March 1—both yielding over $85,000 in total profits. Now, the account is betting another $8,005 on a US-Iran ceasefire before March 31 and $15,614 on a ceasefire before April 15, with these two positions already generating over $30,000 in unrealized gains.

The scale, timing, and previous success of these bets have led to suspicions that these Polymarket accounts belong to insiders—people with ties to US and Iranian political circles and access to non-public diplomatic developments.

Prediction markets have previously been embroiled in insider trading scandals. A recent example: a Polymarket trader wagered on the US taking military action against Venezuela, making over $400,000; days later, the US announced they had captured Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. Rival platform Kalshi recently banned two insider trading users, marking the first time the platform publicly investigated insider trading.

On Monday, Polymarket announced an upgrade of its insider trading rules, explicitly prohibiting three types of behavior: trading using stolen confidential information; trading on illegal insider tips; and trading when a user can influence the outcome of an event.

Polymarket Chief Legal Officer Neal Kumar stated: “Market prosperity depends on clear rules. The new regulations make expectations clear for all participants and underscore the compliance framework we have built.”

This rule adjustment may signal that Polymarket will follow Kalshi’s lead and launch an insider trading investigation. Although it’s not yet certain whether the accounts betting on a US-Iran ceasefire belong to insiders, the platform’s investigation may shed light on the truth.

Unusual spike in S&P and crude oil futures volume before Trump’s post

Additionally, minutes before Trump published his market-moving social platform post, there were also abnormal surges in trading volume for S&P 500 futures and crude oil futures.

Around 6:50 am New York time on Monday, trading volume of S&P 500 e-Mini futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) saw a sharp, isolated surge, breaking the otherwise quiet pre-market background. Early morning sessions typically have thin liquidity, making this sudden volume spike one of the largest of that period up to that point in trading.

The crude oil market showed a similar pattern. WTI crude oil May futures saw noticeably higher trading activity around the same time, with a significant spike in volume breaking the otherwise calm market conditions.

About 15 minutes later, at around 7:05 am, Trump’s statement regarding a delayed strike on Iranian power plants immediately triggered a rally in risk assets. S&P 500 futures soared more than 2.5% before the market opened, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell nearly 6% after the statement.

The simultaneous spikes in trading volume in the early futures session for both stocks and oil drew the attention of traders—especially since there was no obvious catalyst for such volume at the time.

Early morning futures markets typically have lower liquidity, making short-term bursts in trading more conspicuous than during regular trading hours. Nonetheless, these trades still caught the eye, as anyone who bought large amounts of stock futures and simultaneously sold or shorted crude oil futures at that moment made huge profits just minutes later.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and CME Group both declined to comment.

Algorithmic trading strategies and macro-driven strategies could also trigger rapid cross-asset capital flows during early trading, even in the absence of any single identifiable catalyst.