The first nonfarm payroll data of the "Vosh Era" far exceeded expectations; the Trump camp remains noncommittal, and a rate hike has become market consensus.

BlockBeats News, June 5 — The first non-farm payrolls data of the “Walsh era” released today has far exceeded expectations. Analysts and traders now appear to have reached a consensus on a rate hike:

Authoritative analyst and “Fed mouthpiece” Nick Timiraos immediately stated that the non-farm payrolls report will not completely resolve the debate over the size of Federal Reserve rate hikes, but a rate cut in the short term is basically impossible.

CME’s “FedWatch” data confirms this view: By December this year, the probability of a Fed rate hike has risen to 67.7%, with the only disagreement being the size of the increase.

In addition, investment banks have also made their judgments: BNP Paribas expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates three times in a row starting from December 2026.

After the data release, the only camp still insisting on rate cuts is Trump’s team. After the data came out, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that U.S. employment data absolutely does not suggest inflation, the Fed should not raise rates, and there is room to cut rates. The Federal Reserve has always lagged behind the situation, and there is still plenty of room for rate cuts.