Oil prices have fallen, but the most costly misjudgment may be just beginning

Trump finally got it right this time.

Since March, he’s claimed about 40 times that an “agreement with Iran is imminent,” but every time it fell through, to the point that the market learned to treat his words as noise. But late Sunday night, the US and Iran both almost simultaneously announced: a deal has been reached. The ceasefire will be extended, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen within 30 days, and the signing will take place in Geneva on Friday.

Oil prices immediately plunged. Brent dropped more than 5% in early trading on Monday, hitting $83, the lowest price since the first week of March. Stock markets rose in tandem. The whole world breathed a sigh of relief.

But this sigh of relief may have come too soon.