USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds gains above 1.4000, bullish bias persists despite overbought RSI

The USD/CAD pair trades in positive territory around 1.4005 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Optimism surrounding the US-Iran peace agreement drags crude oil prices lower and weighs on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD).

US Vice President JD Vance said on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump may decide to release a preliminary deal to end the war with Iran before Friday, after the US president said the agreement had already been signed.

All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh later on Wednesday. The US central bank is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at the June meeting. 

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, USD/CAD holds firmly above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band, keeping the near-term bias bullish as price consolidates close to recent highs. The Bollinger upper band at roughly 1.4048 caps the immediate upside, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 77 sits in overbought territory, suggesting stretched but still strong upside momentum that could leave the pair vulnerable to a corrective pause.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the Bollinger upper band around 1.4048; a daily close above this barrier would open the way toward the 1.4100 psychological level. On the downside, the first line of support emerges at the June 11 low of 1.3931. The next contention level is located at the Bollinger middle band near 1.3892, ahead of a deeper demand zone clustered around the 100-day SMA at 1.3740 and the lower Bollinger band near 1.3736, where a more significant pullback would be expected to attract buyers in line with the prevailing bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)