Brent: Refined products risk contrasts resilient crude – Rabobank

Rabobank strategists Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit keep their Brent Oil forecasts broadly unchanged, projecting $80/bbl in Q3 2026 and $78/bbl in Q4 2026. They argue crude markets remain relatively resilient despite renewed Persian Gulf tensions, but highlight that Gulf refining disruption, inventory draws and lower Russian fuel exports leave middle distillates exposed to potential price spikes.

Crude outlook steady, cracks elevated

"We await three key events before substantively changing our oil forecasts from an $80/bbl average for Brent during Q3 2026 and $78/bbl for Q4 2026:"

"But, crucially, on the refined product side — middle distillates (diesel/gasoil, jet/kerosene and the marine gasoil underpinning bunker fuels) — will not follow suit because the binding constraint is refining and conversion capacity, not crude availability."

"Reopening the Strait adds barrels of crude; it does not add hydrocrackers, nor reverse the structural loss of distillate-capable capacity that went offline in the US and Europe since 2019."

"So diesel, jet and marine-fuel cracks can stay elevated even as Brent and WTI prices soften."

"We keep our Brent forecasts broadly unchanged for now, as crude markets remain relatively resilient, but refined products look increasingly vulnerable to price spikes as Gulf refining disruption, limited conversion capacity and lower Russian fuel exports tighten middle distillate balances."