Natural Gas: Higher winter gas risk priced in – Rabobank

Rabobank revises its TTF Natural Gas and JKM forecasts higher for Q3 and Q4 2026, citing a structurally tight LNG market and deeper Qatari export losses following renewed Hormuz disruption. The bank still expects a winter premium, warning Europe may enter winter with storage only just above 70% capacity, leaving buyers more exposed to spot LNG pricing and supply shocks.

Qatar shortfall tightens global balances

"The renewed fighting reinforces our view that the LNG market remains structurally tight and that any expectation of a rapid normalization in global balances is becoming unattainable."

"Even under the optimistic assumption that flows gradually resumed through the Strait of Hormuz by August, Qatar was still on track to lose around 37 million tonnes of LNG production and exports by year-end."

"With the latest breakdown in the US-Iran understanding and the resumption of military action, that shortfall is now likely to increase further as it hampers the recovery of Hormuz flows."

"If Qatar can only export a fraction of normal volumes, the global LNG deficit could expand materially, driving stronger competition for available cargoes and leaving Europe and Asia increasingly exposed to supply shocks."

"Taken together, the larger expected LNG shortfall, slower European storage injections and renewed risk premium around Hormuz justify a modest upward revision to our TTF and JKM forecasts for Q3 and Q4 (to €48/MWh and $16.85/MMBtu and Q4 prices to €52/MWh and $18/MMBtu, respectively)."