Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, in his latest analysis addressing the long-standing uncertainty in the market, offered important warnings to his followers by comparing Bitcoin’s (BTC) current movements to past cycles. Cowen argues that the current market structure is a combination of two different eras.
According to Cowen, while Bitcoin structurally exhibits a less volatile replica of the 2018 bear market, in terms of macroeconomics, liquidity, and business cycles, it resembles the “weariness and stagnation” (apathy) period of 2019–2020.
Benjamin Cowen stated that Bitcoin’s price movements in 2026 perfectly mirror the bear market of 2018. The analyst explained this similarity as follows:
- Bitcoin hit a local low in both February 2018 and February 2026.
- In both periods, a higher low was recorded at the end of March and the beginning of April.
- In May, the bear market was rejected from the resistance band, leading to a lower peak.
- In late June and early July, the lows from February were swept away (liquidity cleanup was carried out).
Cowen argued that following the current recovery in July, Bitcoin could retest the resistance band in late July or early August, but that it is historically quite normal for these gains to be reversed in August and September.
Cowen, once again warning about altcoins, recalled the cycle of 2018. He noted that while Bitcoin recovered from its June low in July and maintained the $6,000 level as support until November, the altcoin market suffered a significant loss of value and “melted away.”
The analyst stated that risk appetite remains low in the current period and that money is not flowing into altcoins.
Cowen believes the 2018 pattern will break down towards the end of the year. In 2018, Bitcoin reached its true market bottom in December. However, because the peak in this cycle occurred earlier than in the previous cycle (in October), Cowen predicts that the market bottom may also come earlier, perhaps at the end of September or the beginning of October.
The analyst added that Bitcoin, stuck between the 200-week moving average and the bear market resistance band, may need one final downward cleanup wave for a complete reset of on-chain data and the start of a new bull run.
