Silver tumbles as energy-driven inflation fears keep rate outlook elevated

Silver (XAG/USD) falls toward $56.70 at the time of writing on Thursday, down 1.85% on the day. The white metal comes under selling pressure as renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran drive energy prices higher, reviving concerns about persistently elevated global inflation.

Higher Oil prices are fueling expectations that inflation could remain above central bank targets for longer. This scenario prompts investors to anticipate tighter monetary conditions for an extended period, an environment that is generally unfavorable for non-yielding assets such as Silver.

Geopolitical concerns intensified after US President Donald Trump threatened to expand attacks on Iranian infrastructure if Tehran refuses to return to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, the suspension of crude loading operations at several Iraqi terminals following a drone-related incident has heightened fears of global Oil supply disruptions, providing additional support to energy prices.

At the same time, recent US inflation data is helping to limit Silver's downside. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for June showed a further moderation in price pressures, prompting markets to scale back expectations of additional monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of a Fed interest rate hike at the July meeting has fallen to around 10%, down from above 30% a week ago. The decline in hawkish expectations is limiting downside pressure on precious metals, even as energy-driven inflation concerns continue to weigh on market sentiment.