Trump: Iran Wants Talks but US "Not Interested", "Quick Strike" on Natanz Nuclear Facility, Warns Houthis Not to Block Red Sea

The conflict between the US and Iran still shows no clear sign of a ceasefire.

On Tuesday the 21st, US President Trump poured cold water on the prospect of US-Iran talks. He stated that Iran is “eager to meet,” but before the Iranian side is ready for “meaningful talks,” the US has “no interest” in meeting. He also said the struggle between the US and Iran is “far from over,” and the US will not leave Iran; even if Iran merely considers developing nuclear capabilities, the US will carry out strikes in the relevant region.

According to CCTV (China Central Television), Trump stated that the US will “soon” launch strikes on Iran’s “Haoshan” underground nuclear facility south of Natanz, and that the strikes will be “very fierce.”

Regarding the threat from the Houthi forces in Yemen, which are seen as Iran-backed, to blockade Saudi maritime transport, Trump issued a warning. According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump stated on the 21st during his meeting with visiting Lebanese President Aoun at the White House that if the Houthi forces in Yemen block the Red Sea, the US will take action.

Also on Tuesday, Iranian media IRNA reported that Iran had deployed new air defense systems. This move is seen as Iran’s latest step to reinforce its home air defense capabilities in response to possible further US airstrikes. As Trump explicitly targets deeper and more fortified underground facilities, the military confrontation between the US and Iran is showing the feature of “simultaneous escalation of offensive and defensive capabilities.”

This Monday, there was news that mediators between the US and Iran had tried to push for a 10-day ceasefire; Iran also confirmed receiving the proposal. Trump’s latest statement shows that the current US priority remains military pressure, rather than an immediate return to the negotiating table. The conflict between the US and Iran has shown no clear sign of de-escalation. Instead, it is following the path of “continuing strikes against Iran—expanding pressure on shipping—difficult diplomatic mediation.”

Trump: Iran is “eager to meet” but the US-Iran struggle is far from over and “we will not leave tomorrow”

According to the Associated Press (AP), on the 21st at the White House, Trump stated that Iran is “eager to meet” with the US, but the US has “no interest” in doing so before Iran is ready for “meaningful talks.”

Trump said that in behind-the-scenes communications, Iranian officials have already indicated they are “eager to meet and try to end the war” because Iran is “taking heavy blows.”

However, Trump did not convey a signal of readiness to immediately push for negotiations.

On the contrary, he set the precondition for talks: Iran must first be ready for “meaningful talks.”

This means, in Trump’s view, mere engagement, ceasefire, or symbolic diplomatic contacts are not enough to alter the current US military stance. The US wants to see substantial concessions from Iran on key issues before real negotiations can begin.

The AP noted that Trump was pessimistic about the possibility of talks to end the war.

The other signal Trump sent out that day is even more noteworthy.

According to reports, Trump stated that the struggle between the US and Iran is “far from over”; the US will not be leaving Iran.

Asked whether Iran might come under US attack simply for considering developing nuclear capability, Trump said the US would act in the relevant region. He added, Iran “hasn’t seen anything yet.”

Trump also stated that if the US left Iran the next day, it would have already achieved “tremendous success,” but “we will not leave tomorrow.”

This indicates that Trump does not view previous military actions as a limited operation that has ended, but rather makes clear he is keeping open the option to further escalate military pressure.

This is especially important for the markets.

If the US regards the current action as an ongoing, unfinished military campaign, then market expectations of a “quick end to the conflict and a return to normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz” could be repriced.

Trump threatens “very soon” and “very fierce” strikes against Haoshan underground nuclear facility

While prospects for talks were downplayed by Trump, US military threats are escalating.

According to CCTV, quoting Trump during his meeting with Lebanese President Aoun at the White House on the 21st, Trump said the US would “soon” strike Iran’s “Haoshan” underground facility south of Natanz, and that the attack would be “very fierce.”

If Trump’s threats are ultimately carried out, US strikes against Iran would likely expand from previous focus on military installations, missiles and air defense targets, to much deeper, underground nuclear-related facilities.

As Iran has announced the deployment of new air defense systems, the US and Iran are clearly entering a phase of “offensive and defensive escalation.”

The US is threatening to strike deeper underground targets, while Iran is strengthening air defense. The goals and means of military action for both sides are escalating, compressing the space for diplomatic negotiation.

Iranian President: Supreme Leader instructs end to “neither war nor peace” stalemate

According to Iranian media Tasnim, Iranian President Pezeshkian said that he now has “much more frequent contact” with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and all government actions are based on the Supreme Leader’s guidance.

The report states that Pezeshkian said on Tuesday the 21st at an event that, under Khamenei’s leadership, Iran’s policies will continue. He also said that Khamenei has emphasized in closed meetings that the “neither war nor peace” situation must end, but did not elaborate further.

Quoting Iran’s Mehr News Agency and Xinhua, Pezeshkian on Tuesday emphasized the necessity of maintaining internal unity and cohesion, and stated that the results of negotiations should not be disparaged without valid grounds.

Pezeshkian, at an event marking Iran’s “National Industry and Mining Day,” said Iran was making gradual progress in negotiations on re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, restoring oil exports, and other key issues. Although the US breached agreements, the results Iran has achieved in related processes have “far exceeded expectations.”

Pezeshkian said the debate inside Iran about approaches and outcomes to negotiations is fine, but the results should not be denigrated for lack of professional reasoning. He stated that maintaining internal unity and cohesion is critical for Iran in the current situation.

10-day ceasefire proposal faces real obstacles: US focus remains “punishing Iran”

While Trump has released tough signals, diplomatic mediation has not halted.

Some media reported Monday that Qatar and other US-Iran mediation parties proposed a 10-day ceasefire plan to ease tensions and push for resuming earlier temporary arrangements between the sides.

However, according to Bloomberg citing a US official, Trump’s current focus is to punish Iran for prior attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

The official said US military strikes will continue until Trump chooses to change course; meanwhile, diplomatic efforts still proceed.

This creates a very contradictory situation:

Diplomatic channels are still operating, but military action has not paused; ceasefire plans are advancing, but Trump has openly stated the US is not interested in meeting with Iran for "meaningful talks" as long as Iran is not ready for them.

Therefore, whether the 10-day ceasefire plan can really happen largely depends on whether both sides can first resolve the Hormuz Strait shipping issue, and whether Iran is willing to make substantive commitments as demanded by the US.

Reuters has reported that the markets once saw the ceasefire mediation as hope for easing the conflict and resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but significant divergence remains between the US and Iran.

Houthi forces open a new Red Sea front

The risks of US-Iran conflict are not limited to the Persian Gulf.

Recently, Yemen’s Houthi forces announced a “maritime embargo” on Saudi Arabia and warned ships docking at Saudi ports may face military strikes.

Reuters reports that after the Houthi warning, two tankers carrying Saudi crude destined for Asia turned around to reroute through the Suez Canal. Loading operations at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port continue, but some ships have already adopted precautionary measures such as turning off tracking systems.

This means Saudi crude transport now faces new uncertainties.

Saudi Arabia had previously delivered some crude to Yanbu port on the Red Sea coast via pipeline to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. If the Houthis further threaten the Red Sea or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, even this alternative route to bypass Hormuz may come under threat.

According to Reuters, Houthi actions could have broader implications for global oil transport.

Trump: If the Red Sea is blockaded, US will take action

On the 21st, Trump also warned about the Red Sea situation.

According to Xinhua, Trump stated, as of now, the Red Sea has “not yet” been blockaded, but “if it does happen, we will take action.”

This means the US has left clear room to get further involved in the Red Sea situation.

If the Houthis expand the “maritime embargo” against Saudi Arabia into actual military action against more ships, the US may face the challenge of handling crises in two key shipping lanes simultaneously:

One is the Strait of Hormuz, where the core risk comes from direct US-Iran military conflict; the other is the Red Sea-Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with danger from Houthi threats to Saudi Arabia and related shipping.

This is one of the most disturbing developments in the current Middle East situation.

Previously, markets mainly worried about blockades in the Strait of Hormuz. Now, credible maritime threats are re-emerging from the direction of the Red Sea. If two vital shipping chokepoints are simultaneously affected by military risk, global energy transport, container shipping, insurance premiums, and supply chain costs could all be impacted.

US-Iran talks continue, but the “ceasefire window” is narrowing

Currently, diplomatic channels between the US and Iran are not completely closed.

Mediators are still pushing the 10-day ceasefire plan; diplomatic efforts continue.

But judging from Trump’s latest statement on the 21st, Washington is not ready to stop military action immediately just because of diplomatic mediation.

Trump’s logic is very clear: Iran wants a meeting, but must first be ready for "meaningful talks"; the US can talk, but will not proactively de-escalate before military pressure achieves its purpose.

Meanwhile, Trump also said the US will not leave Iran and suggested Iran “hasn’t seen” the full scope of US military capabilities yet.

As a result, the current US-Iran situation is dangerously locked in a state of “negotiating while fighting”:

Diplomatic channels remain open, but military action continues; ceasefire proposals are on the table, but the US president openly says he is not in a hurry to meet; Iran wants to end the conflict, but the US believes Iran is not yet ready for real negotiation.

And on top of this, the Houthi threat to Saudi shipping has added new variables to the conflict.

In the coming period, markets will need to watch three things:

• Whether Trump’s threatened strike on the “Haoshan” underground facility actually occurs;
• Whether the 10-day ceasefire proposal can break through the US stance of “continuing to punish Iran”;
• Whether the Houthi threat to Saudi shipping escalates from warning to actual attacks.

If all three head in the worst direction at the same time, the US-Iran conflict could spill directly into the Red Sea. The global market would then be facing not just a short-term military conflict, but possibly a Middle East crisis that simultaneously threatens both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—two of the world’s key shipping chokepoints.