Viewpoint: The market is ignoring "grey rhino" risks; if oil prices return to 100 dollars, it may impact the global economy

According to Odaily, Jiang Zhuoer posted on the X platform, stating that the market is currently ignoring a massive "gray rhino" risk, which is the continuous rise in international oil prices. He noted that Brent crude oil prices have rebounded to around $95. In the context that neither the US nor Iran can resolve the conflict in the short term, nor can they reach a compromise on the issue of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation may remain deadlocked for a long time, making further increases in oil prices almost inevitable.

Jiang Zhuoer believes that if transportation through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted, it will have a disastrous impact on the global economy. He also pointed out that both global commercial and government strategic oil reserves have been significantly depleted, and the total US crude oil inventory (including both commercial inventories and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) has fallen to its lowest level since 1984. Once international oil prices rise above $100 again, market sentiment could deteriorate rapidly.