JPMorgan: Tesla (TSLA.US) Robotaxi revenue may reach $320 billions by 2035, with nearly 98% coming from its own fleet

JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta published a research report last week, projecting that by 2035, Tesla's Robotaxi revenue could reach approximately $320 billion, with nearly $314 billion coming from Tesla’s own operated fleet rather than the owner-operated "Tesla Network." This framework effectively pushes out a long-promoted selling point: individual owners tapping into a shared ride-hailing network to earn passive income. For long-term Tesla (TSLA.US) shareholders, this report redefines the Robotaxi opportunity as a capital-intensive ride-hailing operator business, rather than an asset-light software platform—closer to a scaled-up Waymo.

According to related model projections, by 2035, the owner network would contribute only about $5 billion, while the company’s own fleet would contribute about $314 billion. Based on this estimate, Tesla would retain almost all ride revenue, no longer sharing with car owners, thus increasing revenue capture but also boosting capital intensity. This optimistic outlook depends on rapid mass production of Cybercab, declining operating costs, and broad approval of unsupervised autonomous driving.

During the Q2 2026 earnings call, Tesla management reinforced the vertical integration narrative. CEO Elon Musk stated, “We expect Robotaxi to be vertically integrated like our other businesses,” and added, “Demand will exceed our ability to serve.” The company reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $28.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.5%; non-GAAP EPS was $0.33, below the market consensus of $0.54. Robotaxi service currently covers seven major metropolitan areas in the US, with 1.48 million active FSD subscriptions—up 56% year-over-year. Cybercab has already entered production at the Texas Gigafactory, and CFO Vaibhav Taneja guided 2026 capital expenditures to exceed $25 billion to support fleet expansion.

JPMorgan’s revised view raises Tesla’s long-term stock ceiling but also increases the execution threshold. If Cybercab production ramps up smoothly and the approval range for unsupervised autonomous driving expands, revenue capture from the owned fleet would be transformative compared to FY2025’s $94.83 billion revenue base. If manufacturing or regulatory progress falls short of expectations, the $320 billion figure would be significantly compressed. From a research perspective, the Robotaxi contribution is more of a scenario hypothesis than a booked item; compared to the 2035 outlook, nearer-term profit margins and cash flow realities remain more measurable signals.