Michael Saylor’s company has made a single Bitcoin purchase in nearly three months. Matt Cole’s Strive bought again this week. The gap between the two treasury strategies is widening in public and it sits at the centre of Claude AI predicts Bitcoin price below.
What these two balance sheets do next matters more for BTC right now than anything on the chart.
Strategy’s holdings remain at 845,050 BTC, acquired at an average of $75,412 per coin. The firm has deployed just over $63.7 billion across six years to build the position, which now sits roughly $2 billion above cost: a thin cushion with spot near $77,900.
That total has been static. The last purchase came on September 1, when Strategy spent $370 million on 4,603 BTC, a buyback following sales at considerably lower prices. Nothing before it, nothing since.
The money is going somewhere else. Another $139 million went into repurchasing STRC, pulling the company’s USD reserve down slightly to $6.4 billion. The preferred has recovered most of its drawdown, trading above $98.5 after bottoming near $75 earlier in the year.
Defending that instrument, not buying coins, is where the capital is flowing: that shift is the single most important input into where bitcoin goes from here.
Claude AI Predicts Bitcoin Price: Why the Treasury Bid Matters More Than the Chart Right Now
Claude AI Bitcoin Price Prediction
Claude AI predicts that Bitcoin will spend the rest of 2026 range-bound between roughly $65,000 and $95,000, with the upper half of that range more likely into Q1 2027.
The reasoning is structural. Bitcoin is 38% off its October 2025 high, and the marginal buyer that drove the last cycle, leveraged corporate treasuries, is visibly stepping back. Strategy’s pause is the signal. When the largest holder stops adding and redirects capital to defending its preferred stack, it removes a bid the market had priced as permanent. A 469-coin purchase from a firm holding three percent of its stack doesn’t replace it.
For a break above $100,000, I’d want to see treasury accumulation resume at scale or genuine new spot ETF demand. Absent that, $75,412, Strategy’s own cost basis, becomes a psychologically loaded level. A sustained break below it would likely trigger the “is the model broken” narrative and accelerate downside toward $65,000.
Which is what makes Strive’s week worth reading closely.
Strive Rounds Its Treasury to an Even 25,000 BTC With SATA Past $1 Billion Notional
Bitcoin Transactions Strive
Cole announced on X that Strive picked up 469 BTC for $36.6 million, an average entry close to current spot, taking the firm’s treasury to exactly 25,000 coins.
Every dollar came from SATA, which now carries over $1 billion in notional outstanding. Strive has made the instrument its main accumulation channel, and it is absorbing size without visible strain. The same playbook Strategy ran before the market stopped rewarding it.
Strategy is defending its preferred stack rather than expanding its bitcoin position. Strive is still stacking, funded entirely by an instrument it keeps scaling.
Whether Saylor’s pause reflects a view on price, a constraint on raising capital at attractive terms, or plain balance-sheet discipline, the optics are notable. A company that built its entire identity on buying bitcoin relentlessly has, for a quarter now, chosen not to.
Bitcoin’s Liquidity Is Deep but Siloed. LiquidChain Says It’s Building the Connection Layer.
The treasury story above is ultimately about where bitcoin’s liquidity sits and who can access it. Roughly $1.55 trillion in market cap, and almost all of it parked on a chain with no native smart contract layer: which is precisely why corporate treasuries hold BTC on a balance sheet rather than putting it to work.
That constraint isn’t unique to Bitcoin. Ethereum and Solana each hold deep liquidity too, but moving capital between the three still means bridges, duplicated deployments, added fees, and fragmented execution.
