British Pound: BoE holds but hawkish risks rise – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects the Bank of England (BoE) to leave Bank Rate at 3.75% at the June meeting, with a likely 7–2 vote and Huw Pill and Megan Greene backing a hike. Raja still forecasts no rate change this year, but sees rising odds of tightening if the prolonged energy shock fuels indirect and second‑round price effects.

BoE seen on hold with hawkish tilt

"We expect Bank Rate to remain unchanged at 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting."

"We stick to our call for no change in Bank Rate this year. But the odds of a rate rise are increasing, in our view. The duration of the energy shock is becoming non-negligible."

"Should energy prices remain stuck at current levels, we see risks skewed to some tightening of Bank Rate."

"We expect no change in Bank Rate (3.75%). With Bank Rate expectations rising further from April, we expect the majority of the MPC to think that the current monetary policy stance remains appropriate."

"We continue to see no change in Bank Rate—at least for now. We see Bank Rate stuck at 3.75% until spring next year, before the MPC can resume its easing cycle, eventually taking Bank Rate to 3.25% (our estimate of nominal neutral)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)