Australian Dollar: Yield spreads point to downside – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to pause at 4.35% after three consecutive hikes and to remain data-dependent. With soft Q1 GDP, weak labour data and subdued sentiment, they would fade market pricing for another hike this year and note that Australia–US 2‑year yield spreads suggest AUD/USD could undershoot 0.7000 in the near term.
RBA pause weighs on Australian Dollar
"The RBA is widely expected to keep the policy rate at 4.35% (Tuesday), after delivering three consecutive 25bps hikes since February. The RBA signaled it is now in a data-dependent pause as it assesses how Australian households and businesses respond to this year’s tightening."
"RBA cash rate futures imply 60% odds of one final 25bps hike by year end to 4.60%. We would fade the risk of another hike this year. Real Q1 GDP pointed to sluggish underlying demand activity and the April labor force report was poor."
"Bottom line: Australia-US 2-year bond yield spreads suggests AUD/USD can undershoot 0.7000 in the near-term."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Trump publicly calls Jensen Huang: The "AI danger theory" is a fraud, data center importance surpasses the internet
During his speech at the All-In Summit in Los Angeles, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang received a call from Trump and put it on speaker. Trump dismissed the dangers of AI as a "scam" and compared data centers to "the oil of the next twenty or thirty years," claiming their importance "exceeds that of the internet." Jensen Huang immediately expressed agreement, stating that he "won't let (an AI slowdown) happen." However, these strong statements failed to boost the market, as Nvidia's stock fell by 3.4% that day, with tech stocks overall trending lower.
Claude AI Predicts Bitcoin Price as Strive Adds Another 469 BTC
US and European interest rate trends may diverge! Citadel Securities: Energy shocks and high interest rates may increase downward pressure on the European economy
Castle Securities believes that although energy price shocks and the tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank have driven European bond yields to continue rising, these two forces may ultimately also act as factors limiting further increases in yields.
Bank of America (BAC.US) once plunged 6% as CEO sends cautious signal: Q3 trading revenue expected to be flat year-over-year, investment banking fee income may fall short of expectations
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan stated that the bank's trading revenue for the third quarter is expected to be "roughly flat" compared to the same period last year, indicating that after strong growth in the first half of the year, the growth momentum of Wall Street trading businesses is slowing down.
Crypto prices
More
