Indonesian Rupiah gains on easing risk aversion, hawkish BI outlook

USD/IDR extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 17,730 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) depreciates on easing risk aversion following the reports that the United States (US) and Iran reached a deal to end their conflict.

The US-Iran deal, announced on Sunday, is set to take effect this Friday. As part of the agreement, US President Donald Trump stated that the United States will lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, allowing the critical Strait of Hormuz to reopen. In a coordinated response, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy announced they are prepared to lift sanctions on Iran following steps taken regarding its nuclear program.

The Greenback struggles as the US-Iran peace agreement eases concerns about inflation and higher interest rates. Market expectations for monetary policy have shifted dramatically. The CME FedWatch tool now indicates a nearly 47% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates unchanged in December, a sharp increase from the 28% priced in just last week.

The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) finds support as traders wager that Bank Indonesia (BI) will maintain its hawkish tightening bias at Thursday's meeting, following a cumulative 75 basis points of rate hikes since May. The Rupiah is also drawing sentiment from political backing; last week, Deputy House Speaker Sufmi Dasco urged citizens to sell their US dollars to help stabilize the local currency after it hit consecutive record lows.