Bernstein says Robinhood could see 'strong tailwinds' as World Cup drives record prediction market volumes

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein said Robinhood could see “strong tailwinds” as prediction markets posted record trading activity during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup, with daily volumes rising from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, when the U.S. played Paraguay.

The figures already exceed the $1.4 billion traded during last season's Super Bowl, Bernstein highlighted.

In a note to clients on Monday, the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani stated that prediction markets have become Robinhood’s fastest-growing product line by revenue since launch. 

Bernstein projects Robinhood’s prediction market revenue to increase from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, a 286% year-over-year increase. This projected figure would account for approximately 17% of transaction-based revenues and 10% of total revenue for the company in 2026.

The firm also pointed to Robinhood's Rothera partnership as a key differentiator. Rothera is a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse. Since its May 28 launch, Rothera has traded approximately 200 million contracts in its first 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB contracts accounting for nearly 100% of volumes.

The firm said distribution is the edge here, pointing to Robinhood’s ability to leverage its user base and competitive offers, including a $0.01 commission per contract and up to a 50% fee reduction for Gold subscribers.

Robinhood shares traded at $93.19 on the Nasdaq as of Friday's close, according to The Block's HOOD price page.

Institutional expansion

Bernstein also highlighted an expanding competitive set across the sector, pointing to Polymarket’s rollout of private company event contracts and Kalshi’s launch of CFTC-regulated perpetual futures on major cryptocurrencies, which recorded $1 billion in volume within one week. 

The firm said the expansion of contract types and trading venues is contributing to higher engagement during the World Cup period.

Last week, Bernstein named DraftKings and Coinbase as other publicly traded companies positioned to benefit from World Cup volumes. The firm estimates the tournament will drive more than $3 billion in incremental handle and $5 billion to $10 billion in consumer volume uplift across the prediction markets sector.

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market makers or liquidity providers in the equity securities of Robinhood.